Sports
Inside the Retail Buying Cycle for Running Shoes
Igor Santos of Keep Running explains advance ordering, global releases, and betting on industry trends.
Discover how specialty running stores plan months in advance to bring top global releases to store shelves. Igor Santos, founder of Keep Running, reveals the behind-the-scenes reality of semiannual buying cycles and the challenge of forecasting consumer demand.
Getting a newly released running shoe onto Brazilian shelves requires a rigid schedule that begins many months before the end consumer ties their laces. Speaking on the Stemma China show, Igor Santos, partner and founder of specialty retailer Keep Running, detailed the behind-the-scenes mechanics of the domestic sports retail buying cycle.
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Semiannual planning and global launches
The ordering routine for specialty stores traditionally operates on semiannual cycles, with the exception of Nike, which adopts a quarterly scheduling model. Retailers place orders roughly six to seven months before products arrive in inventory.
For a shipment to reach stores in July and supply sales through December, pre-orders and selections must be finalized by October of the previous year. This extended timeline is necessary to account for manufacturing in Asian factories, ocean freight shipping, customs clearance, and import processing in Brazil. According to Igor, aligning this process has enabled the Brazilian market to follow the global release calendar, eliminating the historical delays that once plagued new product arrivals in the country.
Closed showrooms and brand forecasting
Before retailers place their orders, local brand subsidiaries are already working with even longer time horizons. Representatives from brands like ASICS in Brazil typically evaluate and select products about a year ahead of the market, while global development centers are already designing collections two to three years out.
Collection curation takes place in exclusive preview presentations governed by strict confidentiality between retailers and brands. Beyond midsole or upper technology, buyers must factor in regional preferences. Certain color combinations that perform strongly in Scandinavia might fall flat in Brazil, just as anatomical shoe fit and width require careful consideration to avoid high return and exchange rates.
The weight of marketing and taking risks
Even with daily experience analyzing footwear, predicting which models will become commercial hits involves risk. Igor cited the example of a special Adidas collaboration with the Bob Marley brand: initially, both the local subsidiary and retailers opted not to order the shoe, considering the unconventional color scheme unappealing to traditional runners.
However, a massive international marketing campaign sparked immediate consumer demand, leading shoppers to search store shelves for a model that had never been scheduled for import. The episode illustrates how brand storytelling and cultural cachet can reshape product perception and defy even the most technical forecasts in sports retail.
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